How to stop Real Madrid?

Confident take on team set-up from a couch gaffer.

Since this fixture was announced in March and Liverpool was already far away in the Premier League table I was regularly loading my mind with thoughts on how to win this epic duel. The task at hand looks too big to our current team, given the lack of attacking threat, missing cohesion and fluidity, dropped levels of the likes of Odegaard. And now it’s sprinkled on top with the Gabriel injury, leaving our defence without the expected mentality and level of passion.

I watched the highlights of Madrid games, as well as pieces of games against City and Atleti and I came to the conclusion that we have a chance of winning only if we play one specific way. Real Madrid are just pitiless monsters when it comes to using free space on the pitch.

To give some context, this is an episode from their recent semifinal against Sociedad. It starts with a bit of space behind the right back and ends with a goal.

This is a case from their match against Man City. While it looks like there are 5 City defenders behind the ball, crazy Madrid attackers are just running at them. And then it ends with three Madrid players in front of their defensive counterparts.

Madrid attackers attempt to run into spaces relentlessly. Remember how much trouble Isak gave Saliba and Gabriel in the Carabao Cup semifinals? Now imagine there are two Isaks on the pitch in the form of Mbappe and Vinicius and instead of Murphy and Joelington there are Rodrygo and Bellingham. That’s shit-my-pants-wash-them-wear-clean-and-shit-them-again scary. 

What’s our answer then?

Arsenal need to close up the available space on the pitch right away. The only way to do this is if we play with 5 defenders. More specifically, 5-2-1-2 formation in the defensive phase of the game.

First of all, I don’t think we need to give up on Kiwior. There’s an amazing motivational video about Jakub posted by Matthew Pincus.

papapincus

A post shared by @papapincus

I believe it’s very important for the community to have such videos even if they don’t really exist in player reality. They are a form of support and this one has done the trick for me, I am fully backing our Polish lad now!

But the reality is that he would need help covering the space, especially with Myles on his left side, who often moves higher up the pitch in the attacking phase. With 5 defenders the area of responsibility of each single one shrinks. We need to be prepared to close the free zones immediately after we lose the ball. The easiest way to do this is with three at the back in the attacking phase, who are prepared to enter in a physical duel with a running striker.

If we constrain Real Madrid to minimal free space and make them face our physically dominating midfield, we have a good chance of frustrating those arrogant bunch. More importantly, they will not expect it from Arsenal, since we didn’t really try it out before, hence, won't be able to adapt properly.

The interesting part of it all is that we have constantly seen a similar setup against Arsenal this season and, truth be told, it is a tough one to crack. We applied it ourselves only when we were down to 10 men at the Etihad. Now it's our time to go into real “dark arts”.

Proposed line-up

Basically on top of five defenders we add two tactically sound defensive midfielders. 

A bit above them is another midfielder, who helps defending, but also is a focal point of counterattacks. The one who can receive a long pass from defence, hold the ball and either distribute it to the wings or wait for the support to run past him. That’s the profile of Mikel Merino. Or Declan Rice, but he would probably be needed deeper.

And up top we employ two of our fastest players who have the highest probability of scoring when an opportunity pops up. The ones who can create a decent chance with only one or two passes. That’s Saka and Martinelli. Gabi would especially thrive in this environment. He’s been at his best when he just needs to run with the ball into empty spaces without complex passing patterns. 

Now we have two options of how we set up the defensive seven. If Benjamin White is fit enough to play RCB, where he would need less pace than at right back, can receive some cover-up from Saliba and be more focused on winning duels rather than pace, then the line-up could be:

I know, I know, Odegaard’s missing there. However, with such tactics we don’t really need him. We need fast paced players, physical monsters and the ones who can give long passes to our front two into free zones. Rice, Partey, White and even Kiwior are pretty good at finding someone 40 meters away. Odegaard, on the other hand, is very useful when we need someone to dribble in the tight spaces, but it’s definitely not a top priority when the team is setting-up a mid-block with explosive counters. Given his limited presence against Everton, it’s very likely that he’s going to start. That’s why there’s a second option.

There might be some shifting in the attacking phase, for example, Partey moves to Martin’s spot, Martin’s getting a bit up and Saka shifts to the right (which is very close to our main set up). However, the main postulate is that trio Kiwior-Saliba-Timber is not joining the attacks and is constantly tracking the movement of Vinicius and Co. 

In addition there are the likes of Trossard and Nwaneri who can replace either of the front two and Zinchenko or Tierney who can come into Myles’ left wing-back spot. 

Someone in the LG comments suggested Saka can play at right wing back. I am fully against this idea. First of all, this position requires a lot of running and Saka has just returned back from the long-term injury. Second, you don’t put your best attacking player, your best shooter to do defensive runs. You know why Salah scored a gazillion of goals this season? Because he was almost stripped from the defensive duties. Liverpool defends in a 4-3-3 shape where one of the midfielders provides some cover on Salah’s wing. And Salah waits for the ball somewhere around the middle line. Arteta sets up defence in 4-4-2 where our fastest players Saka and Martinelli have to constantly track back 20-30 meters. Afterwards, they naturally don’t have the stamina and possibility to run into the quick counter and catch the opponents unprepared.

I started this post on Saturday morning and when I was finishing it, I found out that Real Madrid had lost 1-2 at home to Valencia, having played their first choice squad. I went to check the player real positions on the pitch:

Guess what? Valencia played 5-2-1-2 against a standard 4-3-3 from Madrid. You can see how 5-2-1-2 almost mirrors Madrid's shape and makes it easier to track players individually.

Does it mean we lose our identity?

Honestly, I don't think there's a way around this approach to the game. We will lose if we start exchanging attacks with them. We will get severely hit on the counters if we try our traditional possession-based game. We need to forget about our identity. Desperate times call for desperate measures. This is a one-time event in the season and requires the most diligent  preparation possible.

We need to do it even in the home stadium on Tuesday. It’s time to be realistic and forget about energy and pressure from the home crowd. Last year we were a better team at football than Bayern Munich, but they punished us hard at the Emirates for two medium mistakes. Real Madrid has scored three on the Etihad, despite not having a lot of the ball. The home stadium is not adding a lot of pressure on the best teams on the continent. Moreover, some of the best players really thrive in such an environment. Vinicius regularly gets MOTM on away stadiums. Because he knows it’s his chance to show his phenomenal dribbling ability and pace. He prays on the general desire of home teams to not disappoint their fans and knows he will get a lot of space to exploit.

The most important marker that we can track in the game is our defensive shape, which we usually do in 4-4-2. In this shape it’s not very hard to exploit the space on one wing. If the ball is lost when both winger and full back are deep into the opponent's half one wing becomes really vulnerable. However, if there are three at the back they can shift preemptively to close the required zones.

Given what we have seen, I think Arteta will go with our standard 4-3-3. But I’ll secretly hope he can surprise those famous eyebrows with the unusual positions our players will occupy.