Before Chelsea. A poker game but whose bluff will be more convincing?

Arsenal heads to Stamford Bridge on the back of two defeats. A third consecutive loss could be disastrous for the title hopes and overall trajectory, potentially boosting the confidence of our future opponents. Which means the victory on Sunday is a pure necessity.

However, we shouldn’t show our desperation on the pitch. Instead, we need a well-calculated, poker-faced approach. We should aim for a performance somewhere between what Inter and Newcastle displayed against us. If we go all-out against Chelsea, we’ll likely fall victim to their counterattacks, which sting like a swarm of bees. Their entire attacking line is incredibly fast, mostly skilled with the ball, and they have Cole Palmer, capable of delivering pinpoint 40-yard passes. Although there are doubts about his availability, I’m fairly certain he’ll play, at least for a limited time.

Chelsea would also be happy for Arsenal to take the initiative, but to stay in the title race, they need to push for a win at their home ground. A poker game indeed!

I believe we should focus on two key principles: giving the ball and initiative to Chelsea and individually marking Palmer. If Arsenal can shut down Palmer, we neutralize at least half of Chelsea’s attacking threat. Amongst their attacking group, he’s the one with the vision, he’s the one that connects their game.

Is it a good time for some Rice?

We have the perfect player for pocketing Palmer, but unfortunately, he’s injured. The Rice situation is a clear indicator of Arteta’s confidence in the team’s abilities. If Declan wasn’t fit enough to train, playing him on Sunday is undoubtedly a risk. It’s not a final or a title-decider, but the long-term consequences could outweigh the immediate result.

Furthermore, if Rice starts on Sunday, he’ll likely be called up for the national team. It’s Tuchel’s first game in charge, England is second in their Nations League group, and they have a crucial match in Greece. The new manager would naturally want to select all the best players. But hey, Kalvin Phillips is now getting regular Premier League minutes, so that’s one less problem for the gaffer.

The only scenario where Rice starts is if Arteta shows signs of desperation. It’s worth noting that Rice’s best performance this season came after serving a one-game ban, so a bit of enforced rest wouldn’t be the worst thing.

But who can then pocket Palmer?

Mikel Merino seems well-suited for the task, given that Palmer often operates in his area. However, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing Timber in that position and Kiwior as a left-back. Timber is an excellent man-to-man defender, and I doubt he’d offer much less attacking threat than Merino. I’ve previously mentioned that with Timber and Merino, our left side is not properly  set up for creativity, leaving Martinelli to improvise on his own. With Kiwior (or Zinchenko, or even MLS) in behind, he should be getting more dangerous.

If we can neutralise Palmer, I’m not overly concerned about who plays our left-back, especially with Gabriel ready to cover up. It seems like a solid setup, particularly if we freshen up our attack.

Time to be bold

I’m growing tired of the Trossard/Havertz duo upfront. We’ve seen them for a significant portion of the past two months, and apart from the memorable PSG game, it hasn’t been particularly saucy.

Trossard has clearly demonstrated why he was rarely a starter before. He lacks the intensity to last an entire match against a dynamic opponent. It’s no wonder he lost his starting spot under De Zerbi’s high-pressing system a few months before joining Arsenal. Yes, he’s a great finisher and can provide a spark for a good portion of a half, but not for the entire game. He works best as a super-sub who can tip the scales in our favour in a difficult game. And if he becomes disgruntled with this role, it’s no surprise considering his open conflict with Brighton’s former manager.

Havertz is technically far from perfect, but in an attacking team, he frequently finds himself in dangerous positions and converts a decent number of chances into goals. He gets five chances, scores one – everyone’s happy. But in a team that struggles to score, he’ll only get one or two great opportunities (like he did against Inter), and he needs to convert them; otherwise, the miss is all that will be remembered. Unfortunately, Havertz isn’t a lethal finisher. We actually don’t have one – someone like Toney immediately comes to mind. I’m not saying the price he was available for justifies his output, but it would be nice to have an alternative option upfront when our main option isn’t working.

Havertz’ conversion rate in Premier League. Last season looks like an outlier

I believe this game presents a great opportunity for Nwaneri to start. After facing Inter and Newcastle, Chelsea’s defence would definitely be an easier challenge. Chelsea is a much more dynamic team than the previous two, and this is the environment in which Ethan could thrive. He could also be very naturally subbed for Odegaard at some point in the second half.

The other benefit of unleashing Nwaneri is that it’s a no-loss option for Arteta. If Ethan gets completely lost in the first half, he will get subbed at half-time and nobody, including the player himself, will ask questions. However, if we see the same line-up as in the two previous lost games and they fail to create a threat, then there will be a lot of backlash: externally and even some within Arsenal.

I don’t think Arteta will be bold enough to put Ethan in from the start. But on the other hand, we are a bit cornered here: if not risk it now, then when?

Final thoughts

I would put out a Raya – White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior – Partey, Timber – Saka, Nwaneri, Martinelli – Havertz line-up, but if I had to guess we will see the same one as against Inter.

The only two games Chelsea have lost this season were to Man City and Liverpool. If we are serious about the title race, we need to join that group.