Aston Villa was the hardest opponent last season – pale zero points and even more pale zero goals in 2 games, which is very atypical of a recent Arsenal team. Consequently, this is one of the hardest away games of the season that by no means should be taken lightly.
I was a bit disappointed by the Man City win against Chelsea. Not that I’ve expected any points from the fresh new 79-player squad under another “next Pep” coach figure, but the ease of City’s win is something that I found frustrating. Guardiola has created this aura of inevitability flying in the vast majority of the City games. The opponents that don’t have confidence of winning against them (like Liverpool) or aren’t ready to give 110% every minute of the game have this inevitable feeling flying in the air above the pitch: “there will come a minute where City will score the goals needed to secure the victory and we can just accept this fate”. This is certainly Pep’s merit – dominating in the Premier League for seven seasons has certain consequences and it’s not enough to just spend large amounts of money, you have to give the unseen confidence to the whole team and every player. You have to make them believe they are entitled to 3 points in each and every game. Pochettino, by the way, is not susceptible to this aura (probably due to previous victories) – his Chelsea was surprisingly one of only three teams that took points from City in both games last season.
I know that Arsenal has to be at their best to take 3 points from Stamford Bridge. I know that when we play there, it’s almost guaranteed one of their 97 players will have an epiphany, receive Maradona’s blessing and it would take all the existing defensive energy to counter it. So we need to have 100% concentration and fighting spirit, whereas City slides past them in a very casual manner and most importantly accumulates mental energy for the season ahead.
But let’s come back to our game – I deeply believe that the calendar has given this Villa fixture in a very bad time. Aston Villa players haven’t played in the Champions League for a long time. Moreover, the squad lost their monster of midfield (Douglas Luis) in summer. I am quite sure the team (including Unai Emery) are not ready to play 3 intensive games a week – Conference League and even Europa League group stage is an absolutely different level. And pretty much like Newcastle last year, they will start to lose intensity and PL points as early as in October. Newcastle actually looked quite lively a year ago in both CL and PL. However, when you don’t have the habit of such games – one missed sprint back, one lost duel, one unneeded push in the back of attacker and it all accumulates in a large number of goals conceded and points lost in the Premier League. I am quite sure Villa will follow the same fate this year. City is playing them in December after 6 exhausting Champions League rounds and this is close to perfect timing for an experienced team.
However, this Saturday Arsenal has to be at the top of their concentration level to win. Unai Emery’s Aston Villa is used to playing two-faced halves. They have around 20 minutes of high-intensity football terrorising the opponent’s defence and the rest of it they sit back compactly trying to protect their gains. Arsenal will need to hold them back in the first phase (which we failed to do in the away game last year) and convert chances created in the second phase (which we failed to do in the home game). It’s worth noting that the previous victory at Villa Park was very hard earned: with three goals of individual brilliance.
In terms of the starting line-up I don’t expect many changes – Trossard might appear on the left flank, which is not surprising due to Martinelli’s questionable form. I think Zinchenko will be left on the bench in favour of more physical defender capable of sprints and I expect to see Timber who was given a 20-minute shift last Saturday. The only open question is: will unconvincing over-the-hill Partey retain his place or will we see over-the-hill Jorginho instead? To be fair, I struggle to see how both of them will keep up with Villa’s midfield pace throughout 90 minutes, but it’s the best we have now. I would predict 60 minutes of Partey with the consequent sub to Jorginho or a more attacking player if goals are needed.
Well, off we go!