Before Atalanta. The need to keep up with the top level

Arsenal starts on Thursday in the Champions League – and it feels very exciting. We have been out for so many years, so even a second year after return still feels exciting. Especially because of the new format. People have been complaining in various format – I don’t get it. I think the format is very refreshing. First, you don’t have these two-leg matches with a same weaker opponent. Second, your team competes with all the European elite for the spot under the sun. I don’t feel that we got tested enough against major European teams in the last round. I don’t feel we got enough experience of playing the continent strongest. In reality we played only Bayern Munich from the very top tier and it is not surprising that the first leg was filled with individual mistakes. No-one including Arteta has never been there.

The optics of the new group stage has also changed. If previously draw away + win at home was everything the team needed to qualify, now it is not a standard anymore. 24 teams qualify to go through, but first 8 skip one play-off stage and it is crucial to get into those TOP-8. The first matchday on Tuesday set quite a high bar. All the favourites including Liverpool set up quite a high bar, including the goal difference. As I see it for TOP-8 spot would be competing following teams: ManCity, Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern, Borussia, Bayer, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Inter. PSG, Atletico, Leipzig will probably be close, but I don’t imagine them taking top-8 for now. What is your expected TOP-8? Leave predictions in comment section!

So at least 10 candidates, maybe more. Which means every point and every goal counts. Arsenal needs to start strong and keep up with the already set bar. According to my estimations and various computer simulations, the number of points needed to get into TOP-8 would be probably around 17. The previous logic of away draw + home win gives you only 16. Now let’s look at the calendar.

The home games are not very hard and I think we should be looking at 10-12 points. That leaves us with 5-7 points from the away ones and that’s where it’s gonna be tough. All the away games are solid: Inter is leading in Italy, Atalanta won UCL, Girona played very attractive football in Spain last season and home Sporting with on-fire Gyokeres (who by the way already costs 20 million more than in summer) is never easy. We should be looking into 2 wins there to reach our goal and since there’s no easy option we should take it utmost seriously in Bergamo. It would also be a good message to robots at Etihad before the upcoming Sunday fixture.

Rice, Rice, baby

Declan Rice is back and I think he should be in squad for both upcoming weeks. At the same time I don’t think Jorginho and Partey are able to deliver 3 intensive games in 8 days. Which means, one should start in Italy and another on Etihad. My choice in this case is simple – Jorginho’s shift is tomorrow: Italian teams are slower and he’ more familiar with the league, while Partey would be running hard against City.

Another haircut face familiar with Italian football is Calafiori. Th man is already training with the squad and I also would like to see him start – I think he could be extra confident on the homeland turf. Whose spot he should take? I don’t think it’s good to change a in-form player, like Gabriel, so there are only two options – Timber or White (with Timber on the right). Both options sound quite good to me and it is probably more of a fitness question.

Rumours about captain

Martin Odegaard is continuing to be absent and there is quite a convincing theory that his ankle is not a in a good shape after the team photoshoot. This means that we need to have a long-term strategy to replace his functions in the team. On Sunday Trossard have put quite a good shift connecting the attack. I have been a long supporter of his abilities and it didn’t look bad for a first game in such role. The only problem with Leo is that his stamina starts to decline after 60 minutes. Is that a problem? I don’t think so, when you have Nwaneri ready to go. Ethan’s appearance on Sunday was forced by Saka, but every time I see him I believe he has all the qualities to play on this level. The only thing he needs is experience and confidence which only can come with the game time. Game time vs Atlanta, Leicester and Southampton. There’s no other way kid develops into a first team regular.

In front we luckily have a choice. I would start Gabriel Jesus – he has this Champions League spark in him. I think he didn’t achieve in this competition enough and feels motivated to show himself in Europe. I personally would put him instead of Saka – even if Bukayo is ready, there’s enough quality in the team to deliver without him and it’s better not to risk his fitness before Sunday.

I also feel that it could be also a good option to start Sterling. He is an experienced fella and should be also motivated by the CL anthem. Who is he going to replace – Havertz or Martinelli, doesn’t really matter much. Martinelli needs more confidence, hence more gaming time, but also he’s one of the very few that can actually give serious problems to ManCity and I would like see him fresh. And I anyway envision them all getting some gaming time.

Let’s channel the excitement into tomorrow’s game. Come on Arsenal!